Mortgage rates jump to near 5%


COVER PHOTO.  Traders work on the floor at the closing bell of the Dow Industrial Average at the New York Stock Exchange on October 10, 2018 in New York. - Wall Street stocks plunged Wednesday, with major indices losing more than three percent in a selloff prompted by the sudden jump in US interest rates. At the closing bell, the Dow Jones Industrial Average had lost 3.1 percent or 830 points to finish at 25,613.35, in the biggest fall since February. (Photo by Bryan R. Smith / AFP) (Photo credit should read BRYAN R. SMITH/AFP/Getty Images)

Mortgage rates jumped to 4.90% which is a number not seen in nearly seven years based on Freddie Mac’s weekly rate survey.  Although an increase was expected the jump of nineteen basis points caught some by surprise.  As strong as the economy is purchasing a home continues to be an illusive transaction for many.  The rise in rates buffeted by the increase in home prices have left many reconsidering their plans as evidenced by the drop in mortgage applications.

Remember that tax break earlier in the year?

Last December president Trump and the GOP controlled congress touted the tax cut as a “cure-all” and justification of their leadership prowess.  Indeed, a good chunk of working people did receive benefits from the tax cut and a few were lucky enough to get bonuses.  The average cut was about $1,600.


For those who were positioning to buy a home or refinance their existing mortgage the recent mortgage rate hike has wiped out that savings.

Time Rate Payment Annual
Oct. 2018 4.90% $1,252
Oct. 2017 3.90% $1,113
Diff $139 $1,668
**based on average mortgage of $239,000

Cyclical

Most understand rates and economic metrics are cyclical.  In other words when you have an improved economy, you will also see a rise in consumer goods.  Also, recently the Feds increased the discount rate.  This was done as a preventative measure to thwart inflation.  Normally political leaders stay out of the Fed’s business but Donald Trump has continued to intimate their move has contributed to rate increases claiming they will result in a negative impact.

“I think the Fed is making a mistake. They are so tight. I think the Fed has gone crazy,” President Donald Trump 

Tariffs

Another pressure-point for the economy is the recent drop in the DOW Jones and financial markets.  Business leaders, especially those in the real estate sector attribute the decline to the uncertainty of the Trump imposed tariffs and other measures.  They feel recent gains may be wiped out.

“These tariffs will translate into higher costs for consumers and U.S. businesses that use these products, including home builders,” Randy Noel, chairman of the National Association of Home Builders 

Here is a snapshot of this week’s rate survey

October 11, 2018

30-Yr FRM 15-Yr FRM 5/1-Yr ARM
Average Rates 4.9 % 4.29 % 4.07 %
Fees & Points 0.5 0.5 0.3
Margin N/A N/A 2.77
Freddie Mac produces the weekly rate survey.  It is the industry standard for consumers and mortgage professionals to gauge consumer mortgage rates.

 

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