United States: the crossroads of 3 November (Part II).
Author: Esteban Morales (CUBA)
When the writing of this article began, only 27 days remain until November 3.
The situation that we tried to characterize in the first part of this article, far from improving, comes, in a growing way, getting worse.
There’s nothing that’s improved for Trump, from the stage we’ve characterized before. Everything continues for America, becoming more and more complicated every day. And for Trump too. Having already reached levels of deterioration, endangering the American nation itself.
When Trump took office in 2017, he was fighting an establishment that made up of Bush (son), The Clintons and Obama, had their political scenario exhausted.
Now, it’s Trump who has his stage exhausted. Both internal and external. It has broken the international, imperial Nato alliance that the United States enjoyed since the end of World War II and took it to the highest positions of control and power of the system.
1 – The US economy continues with the crisis, in the midst of a global economic crisis and Trump has declared leaving for after the election, the money that would alleviate the situation of the unemployed and small industrialists a little.
Accumulated GDP has fallen to 32.9% and unemployment reaches 14 million. The real salary today is lower than it was 40 years ago.
The economic recession has caused more than 30 million to have applied for unemployment benefit and there are 40 million threatened to be driven from their homes. Prices for basic goods are carefully increased.
The differences between poor and rich have soared like never before. In the midst of a trade war against China, it has been proven to benefit the United States at all. Being China, with its clever policy of expanding into America’s historic cross-country, its approach to Europe, and its multinational and political economic projects (e.g., Iran Agreement), its dollar threat, and the astronomical financial debt, those in Jackes to the United States.
2- The pandemic has been getting worse. With more than 8 million infected and more than 217, 000 deaths. So the country turns out to be the most affected in the Americas and globally. Without, so far, there is no serious strategy to deal with the problem. Being African-Americans, Hispanics and the indigenous population, the most affected’ by the disease. Since Covid’s proportions of death among minorities behave as follows:
All of which is the result of the most severely suffering social minorities from the economic indicators of poverty. And they’re fitting the pandemic.
The military budget would have to be cut by no less than 20% in order to pay for the social improvements these minorities would need, to alleviate the situation they find themselves in.
The country has an external debt of $21 trillion and its reserves to deal with it barely reach 450,000.
Trump, with no intention of consultation, holds the Executive Branch in his hands, so he is responsible for the successes and failures, especially in the economy, the distribution of the federal budget in particular, the level of poverty and foreign policy, in what no one can replace him, so he bears the greater responsibilities in this regard. His attitude to the pandemic cannot be more erroneous, unscientific and discredited.
All the more than enough reasons, for Trump, approaching Election Day, to try to manipulate the figures of the pandemic, the economy, to continue to blame Democrats for violence in demonstrations and China for the pandemic. Although the latter shows control of the health situation, that the United States is far from achieving.
3- The pandemic has also attacked the government structure, with an important level of infected by covid-19. That no one has doubts is the President’s entire responsibility.
4- Both the President and Melania Trump have tested positive for the coronavirus. A situation that is confronted by the Representative in such a way that it has brought him much criticism, both among his supporters and by the Democrats. Creating great uncertainty about the President’s true state of health and the danger it poses to many of his close friends or those working on his team. Which can only be seen as a worsening of the situation, which seems to have no end. Then every day the disaster is greater. Now there are statements that he no longer infects, but no one dares to say the result of his last tests.
5- The President insists on his attitude of downplaying the disease and continues with his lies around the vaccine, insisting that it is close; as something miraculous that could come to cleanse the image of his behaviour in the face of the pandemic and the difficulty of health in which he is now.
6- Anti-racist demonstrations continue, abuses and crimes by the police as well. The Black Live Matter movement remains, representing a mobilization factor that is incorporated by people of all colors because they find in it a way of combating police abuses, as well as distinguishing themselves from other right-wing mobilization attempts, the bands and groups that Trump’s Republican supporters are putting together to influence, first in the electoral environment and then on the outcome of the election.
7- Trump continues to mobilize his campaign toward doubt about mail-order voting, his insistence that Democrats want to snatch his triumph and that, if he doesn’t win, it would only result from the fraud democrats are organizing; which keeps him in a position, which is increasingly regarded as in high danger, even by not a few of his supporters. Of which was a very clear signal the recent vote in congress.
In that recent resolution, voted in favour unanimously, it is proposed that the transit of power should have no problems regardless of the outcome in the elections.
So, it is possible to say, that his strategy of creating chaos shows a sustained level of decomposition, which now turns against the president. He thought that sowing chaos, mistrust and danger would put him on the path of winning re-election, when in fact what is taking place is that many abandon him, in the face of the danger posed by such an environment to the personal safety of the average citizen. Of which is expression, forward-voting and mail-voting, which, as is known, would in fact benefit Democrats the most. For fewer and fewer will be willing to vote in person, with danger to their person and family.
8- Days before the first Presidential Debate, the handling around the President’s tax returns came to light, by an article in the New York Times, which seems to have filled the cup of the difficulties he faces. Finally, a federal judge has forced you to file the return.
The situation, in the midst of Trump now, having not openly triumphed in the presidential debate, feeling limited in his campaign style as a result of the disease, and intuiting that the polls are not openly in his favor, but Biden is moving forward, subtracting points, altering him, and even making him seem to feel lost.
Every day that passes, after declaring himself sick, he is more unbalanced. Which he does not do, but is re-signed in his desperate campaign strategy of preparing conditions, to shout fraud against Democrats, when he sees fit.
Following the assassination of George Floyd, Biden began beating Trump, including Law and Order, by a difference between 48 and 47%. That is not high, but if an important indicator, taking into account, that it is a slogan raised by the President himself.
Since then, Biden, according to the “New York Time-Siena Collage” polls, has the widest margin nationally, for the particular case of the following states:
-Minnesota -9% (50-41).
-Wisconsin- 5%( 48-43).
-Nevada 4%( 46-42).
– New Hamspshire-3% (45-42).
54.4% disapprove of Trump’s management. In the national intention of the vote, Biden outpertches Trump by 6.5%. They would vote for Biden 49.5% and 43.0% would vote for Trump. Despite the already historic advantages, by Republicans in Florida; However, Biden outperged Trump with 48.6%, while Trump has 47% or 1.6% less. Difference that continues to increase in Biden’s favor.
Today, the Cuban-American vote in Florida is not monolithic or voted on in bulk as before, rather, there is some tendency towards more liberal positions and against conservatism, Republican, mainly by young people.
Before the pandemic, mainly because of economic indicators, which seemed to have acceptable behavior, there was a tendency to favor Trump. But after coviding, this trend seems to have changed, as a result of the economic crisis aggravated by the pandemic itself. It is that there are now more than 8 million infected, almost 217,000 deaths and the figures in Florida reach 15,000 deaths.
It is that, as we said, the economic recession has soared both unemployment and evictions reaching more than 40,000.
In Florida it is very difficult to quantify the growing support for Biden, which seems to be occurring, given that the level of intimidation is too high, although, at the same time, it seems that politics towards Cuba, far from favoring Trump, unsurprisingly, seem to be affecting him on something.
The amount of electoral or commitment vote, for pendulous or undecided States, is presented to us as follows:
Any of the four of them can be decisive in a tight ending.
The Democratic triumph will then depend on following his line of moderation and strongly denouncing Trump’s positions.
In addition to having a substantial vote of minorities, particularly African-Americans, Afro-Latins, left-wing and progressive forces, youth in particular and the states of Arizona, Colorado, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Minnesota.
Everything seems to indicate that Democrats will maintain the House, not the Senate, so then it will be very difficult for them to govern. But Republicans are very concerned, because the votes to keep the Senate seem to be complicating him. So it wouldn’t be a total surprise if they lost the Senate too.
The complications of the Cuban-American vote.
The American nation has 331 million inhabitants. About 60 million are of Hispanic or Latino origin. Of these, 2,300,000 are Cuban in origin. Of which 1,200,000 (70%) live in the state of Florida.
Registered to vote there are 268 million, of which 32 million are of Hispanic or Latino origin.
Within that minority group more than 1 million are Cuban-Americans. Of these, about 650,000 are registered in the state of Florida.
The Cuban American vote represents 6% of the Florida electorate and less than 1% of the country’s total vote.
But the Cuban-American vote has changed over the past 20 years.
At 2,000, George Bush got 75% of the above vote. And in 2004 I achieved 78%, with a policy of open confrontation towards Cuba. However, he lost to Obama in 2008, which achieved 64% of the Cuban-American vote. This indicated a considerable change in the Cuban-based electorate. Hilary Clinton, although she lost to Trump in 2016, reached 46% of the Cuban-American vote.
We consider that several are the factors that explain the change of the Cuban-American vote, presenting a certain tendency towards the most liberal candidates.
Two facts are in sight: in 2012, many fears that politics towards Cuba would return to its most hostile foundations. Also, the ideological rejection of the new generations to the extreme conservatism of the Republicans, which this year has been aggravated, above all, with regard to Cuba.
The issue of relations with Cuba has been an existential need for new immigrants, which places many in frank opposition to Republican proposals, aimed at limiting contacts with Cuba. Which is at odds, with the kind of migrant who has left Cuba for the United States, in the last 20 years.
Although this contradiction, it is not so clear for young people born or raised in the United States, whose link to their homeland has a more diffuse value, and even often does not materialize in practice.
This is also nuanced, often, by what wave of migration they have reached American society.
Let’s say, Mariel’s in the ’80s are registered voters, who usually support hostile policies toward Cuba.
Those in 1995, when immigration agreements were signed, are mostly registered voters advocating for a rapprochement with their home country. Like the descendants of the second and third generation Cuban community.
The latter segment is accompanied by immigrants who settled since 2013, in which they were favored by the updating of Cuban immigration policy, aimed at making migration movements legally, orderly and safe. As well as deployed to strengthen the relationship with emigration.
For the first time part of that group, already registered, will vote as U.S. citizens in 2020 and many support the existence of diplomatic and trade relations between the two countries and the expansion of travel to Cuba. Since in them the economic reasons for emigrating, which began to present strongly from the late 80’s, has a very important weight. Almost decisive.
From Obama’s approach to Cuba and, above all, diplomatic relations in 2015, many traveled to Cuba. Behaving as follows:
– 2015- 292,000
All despite the obstacles Trump began to impose. Ever since he took office.
“An annual study by Florida International University, of 2018, entitled “As Cuban Americans in Miami Look at U.S. Policies towards Cuba,” made up of 1001 residents, consulted by telephone, I reveal the following: that a candidate’s position on Cuba is no longer a priority for the Cuban-American voter in Miami, but that Cuba cares about the same problems as those who are not of Cuban origin and other Latinos in the United States.” (See: Guillermo Grenier and Hugh Gladwin,2018, FIU, Cuba Poll How Cuban American in Miami view US). (1).
The previous trend had already been observed, influenced by the social composition of the migration wave and the reasons for emigrating, for which Cuba gradually became a subject for political campaigning in Miami.
So when deciding their vote, Cuban-Americans indicate a strong tendency to worry more about local or national issues that directly affect their living environment.
In descending order for the Cuban-American voter, the most important aspects of shaping their intention to vote would then be: economy, labor, health, arms control, immigration, taxes, voting for their party (regardless of priorities), terrorism, international politics, other priorities and finally the candidate’s position on Cuba.”
In other words, Cuba has been no longer the priority issue when deciding the vote.
On this occasion, most respondents favored increased relations with the island. Something that has been characterizing migration waves mainly since the late 1980s.
The electoral importance of the African-American community.
This community of African-Americans, Afro-Latins and Afro-Caribbeans has increased its electoral importance, mainly from anti-racist demonstrations caused by the assassination of George Floyd in Minnesota.
Biden can take advantage of the attention he gives to this sector of the American population, whose tendency has been to lean toward the Democratic party.
This inclination, particularly from the American Protestant community towards the Democratic party, is associated with the fight against racial inequality, as some experts point out.
Because of the long history of dealing with racial oppression, African-American evangelicals have tended to make social justice issues an important part of their Christian faith.
The above makes the important difference with the White Evangelicals, who prioritize the fight against abortion and have more conservative stances on racial issues, which, according to recent polls, more than 80%, give his vote to Trump.
The aforementioned church, visited by Biden in June, points to socioeconomic racial division as a primary theme for its movement.
His pastor Silvester Beaman cites concerns such as: disparities in public health, police reform, public education, job creation with living wages and health benefits, prison recidivism, and candidates seeking to unite the nation.
There are also its nuances and exceptions in the support of African-American religious.
Let’s say, Harry Jackson, Pentecostal pastor of a mostly black church in Maryland, is part of a group of conservative White House evangelical advisers, who recently, within an evangelical meeting, suggested attendees seek support from people of color for President Trump, saying that “Trump was not a racist but a problem solver.”
The rate of black voters declined for the first time in 20 years and polls show that Trump struggles to raise more than 8% of the African-American votes he picked up in 2016.
The African-American church could encourage the vote of its faithful. And it has historically been recognized as an authentic institution, relatively free from White influence. Being very listened to, when she calls out for the exercise of the vote.
In a special way, anti-racist marches, after the assassination of George Floyd, are seen by many young activists as more attractive than the church itself. By contributing at the base level, not only themes of race, but also of class and gender. Holding many, that the black church must get on that train, perhaps without the leadership of the 1960s, but playing a prominent role.
The church is seen as an independent institution of political parties, but admitting that, by the tradition of Afro-descendant voting, the church will make efforts to mobilize the electorate for the benefit of the Democratic party. Starting from examining candidates who are concerned about the problems that are important to the black community.
One situation that could have a major impact on Democrats is about convicts. That is, people who, because they have been in prison, must pay their debts in order to have the right to exercise the vote. Among them, for well-known reasons, there are many African-Americans and Latinos, with a marked tendency to vote Democratic.
More than 44,000 taxpayers donated to the convicts’ cause. That, if they could pay their debts, they could vote and that would benefit the Democrats.
It is very important for Trump to win florida’s 29 electoral votes, to be elected president. But if Biden loses them, he could still win the presidency.
In addition to the problems Trump already faces, the recessionous economy, the pandemic, anti-racist demonstrations, and the mistakes he has been making in foreign policy, he also faces, because of the disease, not being able to carry on the campaign as he would like, riddled with crowded, noisy, aggressive rallies, laden with trumpist dynamics. Adding now to him, the congressional resolution that limits him in the development of a campaign, based on the distrust of the vote by mail, the open statement that the elections would be based on Democratic fraud, the pandemic, which has best failed to harm it, its aggressive messages and speeches, its attitude aimed at sowing the discredit of the presidential electoral process and its foreign policy mistakes.
As if that weren’t enough, Quinnipiac University polls show biden has an advantage over Trump by 11 percentage points in Florida, 13 points in Pennsylvania, and 5 in Iowa. Two New York surveys from Siena College found biden leads by 6 points in Nevada, 1 point in Ohio and 5 points in Wisconsin, according to Marquette University.
Biden’s advantage in real clear policy’s average national surveys is now 9.4 points, his biggest advantage since June. Biden has taken a 14-point lead among Latino voters in Florida.
That means Biden is expanding his lead against Trump in a number of crucial states, according to the latest round of polls.
In addition, major scientific publications publish for the first time in centuries of editorial stories calling for a vote against President Trump.
The last magazine to join has been the New England Jornal of Medicine, dean in its 208 years of existence and which had always stayed out of politics, now publishing a publisher signed by 34 publishers, 33 of whom are Americans, accusing Trump of having turned the coronavirus crisis into tragedy.
This means that the most representative in medical science publications worldwide has given Trump his negative assessment of pandemic behavior.
By ranking editorially, or through statements issued, the most representative of science worldwide has very negatively described Trump’s attitude to the pandemic, climate change, the Iran Agreement, paris’s climate change.
With such assessments or assessments, by the world’s most important scientific publications, Trump’s management, his behavior in the face of the pandemic, the most disastrous epidemic of the last 100 years, cast away any doubt or any possibility of manipulation, such as to qualify Trump as the No.1 enemy of Science.
What else does Trump need to accumulate to prove that he will not be re-elected as president?
If any credit Trump has, it is to have guessed that his re-election is in mortal danger. Reasons why he claims time and time again that only a fraud by Democrats could take it away from him, as well as discredit the same process in which he would be re-elected.
The facts analyzed have convinced me that Trump would not be re-elected president of the United States, as it would endanger the world and the American nation itself.
I believe that Trump’s strategy, to turn the Presidential Election Process into real chaos and use it, at any cost, to snatch the presidency from Democrats, has failed. Every passing day exhausts his chances and he only has to fit the most disastrous defeat that an American presidency has ever had. And it is that, I believe, the citizen consciousness is breaking through that only with a blunt defeat on behalf of democrats did Trump abandon the crazy idea of endangering the nation, in order to maintain its presidential position.
I think if that didn’t happen, the world and the United States would be on the brink of disaster.
Already Trump, con attending Hilary Clinton, lost the massivity of the vote, but still won the presidency by accumulating the necessary votes of the Electoral College.
That spawn of American democracy, which must disappear.
That mass that voted for the Hilary, Trump has grown it, although now it is distributed in favor of the Democrats, giving them the triumph, according to the rules of the Electoral College. Which is a result of Trump’s own dangerous extreme self-centeredness. Having violated all the rules of political behavior, having threatened the citizen tranquility to the extreme,
Declared his intention to become emperor; having deceived, robbed, murdered, disrespected, self-possessing himself as the most dangerous being who could have held the presidency of the richest and most powerful nation in the world. When at such a time and place, a semi-person like Trump uses his power endangering the whole of society, herself has to eliminate it, sending it into the deepest, darkest hole, from which it can never come out. Even his own family won’t remember.
October 11, 2020.
This article was reprinted with permission from the author, Professor Esteban Dominguez Morales who is a distinguished author and lecturer. Professor Morales hails from Cuba and his perspective is sought worldwide on social and economic matters related to Cuba.